Predicting index price based on the Covid-19 cases and deaths

Predicting index price based on the Covid-19 cases and deaths. Sains Malaysiana, 50 (9). pp. 2833-2846. ISSN 2735-0118 (2021)


COVID-19 pandemic has impacted global financial market. In this paper, we study the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on
four countries indexes which are United Kingdom, United States, Japan and Malaysia to see the effect of the spread of the virus on economy. Based on descriptive analysis, most index market suffer for a short period of time after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 as a pandemic on 11 March 2020. However, most markets manage to
get back on track after a few months. We want to see the effect of number of COVID-19 cases and deaths on the index
price because we believe that they will impact the economic growth of most countries. This will indirectly impact the
countries index market as most businesses could not operate in full scale. Moreover, an increase in number of cases,
most countries had to implement a partial or total lockdown which then impact the economic growth. Based on our
studies, we conclude that the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths did have an impact on the four countries index
price. Prediction analysis shows that the time series linear model can predict index price better than ARIMA model that
relies on historical data. As of right now, COVID-19 does have a huge impact on the countries financial market and
economic growth

Item Type: Article
Keywords: ARIMA Model, Covid-19, Predictive analysis, Time series linear model, Economic growth
Taxonomy: By Subject > Business & Management > Economics
Local Content Hub: Subjects > Business & Management
Depositing User: Jamil Jawi
Date Deposited: 31 Mar 2022 23:36
Last Modified: 05 Apr 2022 08:35
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